Current Chicago NEXRAD Radar Map : Weather Underground

Current Chicago NEXRAD Radar Map : Weather Underground

Meteorological Winter

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 marked the beginning of Meteorological Winter. Seems a little early huh? There's a diference between Meteorological Winter and Astronomical Winter (also known as the Winter Solstice).

Meteorological Winter is the time of year in which the Northern Hemisphere is the coldest. This period starts on December 1 and ends on February 28.

We are more familiar with Astronomical Winter or the Winter Solstice that begins on December 21-March 20. During this time is when the sun will be furthest away from the Earth.

Pretty inconcievable that Winter is here after experiencing such a mild November and a high of 55 degrees Tuesday at O'Hare. However, today, even though still above normal, we have cooled down falling 10 degrees from Tuesday (45 degrees was the high at O'Hare) with colder weather on the way. Below is a graphic of the 6-10 day temperatures from the Climate Prediction Center.

Colder Blast post Thanksgiving

The GFS remains consistent on an artic blast that is expected to hit the Midwest Thanksgiving week. In addition to this, the Midwest's (especially in Minnesota and Wisconsin) first widespread snowfall is to take place. Chicago may see a few flakes fly come Thanksgiving. Looking further down the road into the first week of December, there is an even larger intusion of cooler air to take place. There are a few indications that supports this. First, is what is called the AO (Artic Oscillation) index. When negative, that means the cold air locked in the Artic typically plunges south into the U.S. providing cooler than normal weather for the northern plains, Midwest, and the Northeast. Opposite conditions when positve. The graphic below shows the Ao index going in a negative direction heading into the first week of December.


Second, the 11-15 day outlook has temperatures from the Plains states to the East coast below normal. The picture below shows this.


The day of this will be December 4 when temperatures will stuggle to make it into the 30s. The graphic below depicts the gfs model of the 850mb temperatures December 4.

Thanksgiving Pattern Change?

Lately, I've been keeping an eye on the consistency of the GFS between the Nov. 24th to Nov. 30th timeframe. So far, the runs have been consistent in showing an outbreak of cold weather around Thanksgiving. The month of November has been everything but what the month of October was. The National Weather Service mentioned that this October was the third coolest October on record and the wettest ever. The pattern for November has been a mild one. In fact, according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), next week there will be warm weather over much of the country. The image below gives a graphical depiction of this.


The GFS, while not too good with giving the exact time of a major weather event, does a good job at giving hints of pattern changes. With the current warm up and the morning GFS run continuing to support cold air invading the middle of the country, it will become interesting to see how things will pan out after next week.

It's not important at this time to point out any major storms. However, it is important to note that our current zonal pattern, that has been ushering mild Pacific air into the States, may break in the next couple weeks.

El Nino will be the biggest wildcard in all of this. El Nino has recently gained strength.

This may not necessarily mean that there will be no snow across the middle of the nation or the East Coast. I think that this Winter will experience a split pattern (being active and variable). It will be interesting to see what El Nino does in the next month or so. Models have been showing a decrease in Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) after December which will indicate a stormy second half of this Winter. Only time will tell.

Veteran's Day Tornado Outbreak

Remember the Veteran's Day tornado outbreak Nov. 11, 2002. This was the first major tornado outbreak of the 21st century. 36 lives were lost in 5 states. 83 tonadoes were spawned in 17 different states making this the second biggest tornado outbreak ever for the month of November.

11/11/11 Tornado/Cold Snap

Ever wondered how wild and crazy it would be to have a day of sun with 70 and 80 degree temperatures followed by a tornado outbreak followed by a blizzard/record setting cold snap (leaving behind it temperatures in the single digits)? Well there was a day in which all that happened. It was on this day 98 years ago in which such an event took place in the Midwest. A major storm system spawned numerous tornadoes in the town of Janesville, WI (a town in southern Wisconsin). 9 people lost their lives. The tornado strongest of the tornadoes was an F4. This followed a major cold snapped deemed the "The Great Blue Norther". It's funny too because many cities that day recorded record highs (70s/80s in November). But that same night (YES the same night..some 10 hours later) many Midwest cities were dealing with single digit temps. This was the only day in which a record high and record low was broken on the same day for many cites. Temperatures were in the low 70s in Southern Wisconsin. By nightfall temps drop to around 0. Springfield, IL was the most notable. A high of 80 that afternoon before the cold front passed just to dip to 40 degrees two hours later to 13 degrees by midnight. A 67 degree temperature drop in not even 12 hours. Oklahoma City, OK recorded a record high of 83 degrees and a record low of 17 (66 degree temperature drop). This record still holds today. There was one death from the cold in Monroe, Wi in which a man froze to death.

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First Freeze 2009

Projected overnight lows (NWS)

If you have any plants or vegetation prepare to protect them. Tonight the NWS will be issuing a freeze warning for the northern Illinois region. Overnight lows are to dip below the freezing mark. Widespread frost is highly likely. Highs Sunday probably will not make it out of the 40s.

Artic Oscillation indicates cold airmass to linger for the next several days

6-10 day temp. anomaly map (CPC)

Chicago's Recent Rain

September 2009 will be remembered as one of the driest Septembers on record. Much of Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin has been under the influece of High Pressure largely due in part to a major blocking pattern. Since Sunday we have been recieving on and off showers about the area. This has been the regions first rains in over 3 weeks. Below are some of the rainfall numbers recorded today. Most fell west of the Chicago area.

Today's 9/22/09 Rainfall Amounts

3.63" Madison, WI

1.53" German Valley, IL

1.33" Dubuque, IA

1.22" Mount Carrol, IL

1.19" Rockford, IL

0.17" Milwaukee, WI

Records in jeopardy as autumnlike airmass sets in

Waking up this morning with temperatures in the 50s makes it hard to believe we're in the middle of July. A pocket of cold air in the great lakes adding cold air advection from the north will cause for temps to barely make it to 70 degrees today and keep us in the 60s tomorrow. Meanwhile, low temps will get down into the low 50s for the next couple of days. These temps are some 10-15 degrees below normal. The average high for this time of year is 84 and the average low is 64. This weekend there needs to be an eye on a few records that can be broken. In particular, record cool highs and record lows. The forecasted high for today is 70. Below is a list of records likely to be broken with the record and the year.

Friday (Record Cool/Min High: 80, 1878)
Saturday (Record Cool/Min High: 78, 1942) Saturday (Record Low: 53, 1979)
Sunday (Record Cool/Min High: 78, 1977)
Monday (Record Cool/Min High: 79, 1977)

Everyday in June has had at least one tornado report

The U.S. tornado streak is at 18 days since May 30th (a very active pattern for the month of June). This streak will likely continue with severe weather expected from the Plains to the Midwest and Ohio Valley over the next few days. For the year there are 889 tornado reports. 165 of those reports are in June. Below is a list of the top 5 states with the most reports thus far:

Alabama 98
Texas 94
Georgia 64
Kansas 64
Missouri 60

Month to date (top 3 states):
Texas 25
Kansas 22
Colorado 17 (total for the yr, 24)!

2009 tornado reports through June 17!

U.S. tornado reports month to date through June 17!

Areas today where severe weather is likely to take place!

Vortex 2 catches #1

Vortex two catches their first tornado.

http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?from=email&bcpid=823503751&bclid=19052817001&bctid=25333977001

Hurrican forecasters predict 9-14 named storms this year

Hurricane season is underway. The above images depicts what forecasters are predicting for this year. I'll have more to write later on.

The start of meteorological summer

Meteorological summer (June 1) is just around the corner. We will be approaching the start of meteorological summer on a warm note. Readings could top 80 becoming the warmest in a week. This can also be the warmest start since June 1 2007 in which we reached 85 degrees. Below is a list of the number of 80 or more degree days through June 1 dating back to 1998.

# 80+ degree days thru June 1
1998 11
1999 7
2000 9
2001 11
2002 8
2003 3
2004 9
2005 7
2006 8
2007 16
2008 3
2009* 5

*Through 5/29/09

The 11 year average of days dating back to 1998 is 8. So we are slightly behind schedule.

How rare are one day 100+ tornado producers??

There was a question that came up on how rare is a one day 100+ tornado producer. I recently researched that going back to 2000 and there is not a day that produced over 100 tornado reports. However, there are 9 (2 day periods) that helped to produce 100+ reports. Of the 9 days 6 happen to be in the month of May. 3 of the 9 happen to occur on other months. The most recent of these events occured in April 9-10 2009.

Just May
May 29-20 2004 170 reports
May 4-5 2007 122 reports
May 4-5 2003 117 reports
May 10-11 2008 112 reports
May 22-23 2008 112 reports
May 6-7 2003 109 reports
* Note the month of May happens to be the peak month in the United States for tornado outbreaks.

Other months
Feb 5-6 2008 131 reports "Super Tuesday Outbreak"
April 9-10 2009 116 reports
June 23-24 2003 103 reports

Wednesday's potential severe weather outbreak

With temperatures in the 70s, dewpoints in the mid 60s, and an upper level trough with a pretty strong jet spells for a significant severe weather event Wednesday evening. The threat exist from as far north as Green Bay, WI northeast to Traverse City, MI down to Ft. Wayne, IN stretching southwest to Oklahoma. The moderate risk is for north central IL extending to central MO. This moderate threat is where we expect to have the biggest outbreak. Hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. There will be a line of stoms extending from Michigan to Oklahoma. The timing as far as the storms affecting Chicago seems to be between the hours of 7 and 10pm all associated with a cold front. If everything verifies, this will be our first outbreak of the season.







Here are the storms out in the plains below stretching from Iowa to Arkansas. Cloud tops are anywhere from 30,000 to 50,000ft. Hail and wind are the reports so far.

Southern Missouri Northern Arakansas severe weather

A derecho is currently taking place down south in MO and AR. This storm is capable of producing winds over 80 mph, hail and tornadoes. Jonesboro, AR and Paducah, KY are just a couple cities in line of this storm.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0267.html



Reports already.


Here are a couple videos of that derecho.

Cowboys assistant paralyzed in facility collapse

Cowboys assistant paralyzed in facility collapse

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Unseasonably cool pattern to give way to near record warmth

Good day everyone! One more full day of cold (40s) wet weather. Tomorrow warmer but lingering clouds and a north wind could keep us in the 50s 54-57. Thursday breezy and a BIG jump in temps. highs 78-82 far western burbs most likely to reach 80+. Friday near record warmth and the WARMEST since October with highs in the mid 80s 83-87.


Below are a list of cities that broke a record yesterday (Monday April 20, 2009).

City: New record (old record)
Gilroy, CA: 99 (86/1992)
Oakland, CA (airport): 91 (79/1986)
Salinas, CA: 99 (88/1986)
Santa Cruz, CA: 96 (88/1899)
San Francisco, CA (airport): 91 (81/1986)
San Jose, CA: 95 (94/1906)
El Cajon, CA: 101 (90/1986)
Downtown Los Angeles, CA: 100 (96/1958)
Long Beach, CA: 100 (93/1986)
Laguna Beach, CA: 97 (85/1987)
Santa Ana, CA: 103 (91/1986)
San Diego, CA (Lindbergh): 98 (93/1899)


Above is a graphic showing the projected highs for today (Tuesday April 21, 2009).

Big warmup later this week

Slow moving storm system that dumped over 50 inches west of Denver, 34.5" of snow in Pincliffe, CO and powerful winds 60+mph at Denver International Airport has made its way here. Not a winter storm but just rain that will linger through Tuesday. Temps some 5-10 below normal will accompany the rain. However, clouds will start to clear late Tuesday and by Wednesday we'll be back into the 60s. Then the warmup: Thursday highs approaching 80 degrees. Friday mid 80s and near record highs. Sat. and Sunday lower 80s. These temps happen to be 20-30 degrees above normal. Ahhhh can't wait!!

Severe Weather Outbreak - South

Severe weather outbreaks on the dates 4/9/09 and 4/10/09 have combined for over 90 tornado reports (93 to be exact). 12 states impacted(AR,MO,AL,MS,LA, TX,TN,KY,SC,NC,GA,OK). Below are the two occasions showing the tornado reports along with wind and hail.